Superior runners as Producers

In the last post I showed a list of the dams of the highest indexed runners and their indexes. This week I'll show the top 10 highest indexed mares that were able to produce high indexed runners



Dam.........................index.........................Runner................index



Mom's Command.......53.47..... ..Jonesboro..........................10.95

Madcape Escapade....44.94..... ..Mi Sueno............................20.72

Beyond Perfection.....31.40........Misremembered...............24.87

Tomisue's Delight......31.12.........Mr. Sidney........................17.26

Tranquility Lake........29.95.........Courageous Cat..................9.32

Honest Lady...............26.86.........First Defense.....................13.98

Well Chosen................26.22.........Telling.................................11.83

Innuendo.....................24.02.... ...Criticism..............................25.12

Classy Mirage.............21.95..........Dublin..................................19.50

Gay Charm.................21.60..........Einstein...............................49.93



Some interesting observations from these broodmares with very superior racing indexes. First, Champions usually have a racing index of 25 or higher and this is the point where the "law of Diminishing returns" sets in. From there on as the mares racing index increases it increases the likelihood that she will "breed down" from her own index. As you can see the top five mares all bred down from their own indexes. Only Gay Charm the dam of Einstein bred up. The problem is that Gay Charm raced in Brazil and her racing index is only an estimate



Another important factor is that once regression has taken place in the family a resurgence can take place, that is why Mr. Sidney by Storm Cat and First Defense by Unbridled's Song are excellent Stallion prospects. On the female side the same hold true for Mi Sueno.

Dam's of Superior Runners

This week in addition to the winners of the last few weeks G1 and G2 races I'm going to give you the list of the dams of the highest indexed runners of the last year. When looking at these horses consider that these indexes are not always accurate or have not been updated in a timely manner. I'm using the Brisnet Standard Starts Index taken from their Bloodstock Review Web Site. However, the can lag behind in updating their Indexes. For instance, Rachel Alexandra was shown having a 69.01 Standard Starts Index after winning the Kentucky Oaks in May. Since she has won the Preakness Stakes, with a purse of $1,100,000, the Mother Goose with a $300,000, the Haskell, $1,250,000 and the Woodward Stakes, $750,000 without defeat. After the Woordward the site still showed her index as being 69.40, obviously not correct. For our purposes this does not matter as we are not using the index as a handicapping tool. The horse with the highest rcing index may or may not be the best horse. what we are looking for is horses of the highest racing class that have the highest earnings per start. We are looking to see what type of racemare is most likely to produce runners of extreme racing class. the horses I'm about to show you have very high indexes and it soesn't matter for our inquiry if the horse has a 75 index or a 150 as both are exceptional. Here are the highest indexed runners of the past 12 months.

Runner index .............. Dam's index

Curlin 156 .....................Unr
Big Brown 136 .....................8.20
Midshipman 89 .................... 13.99
Goldikova 95 .................... 1.65
Raven's Pass 90 .................... 7.88
Zenyatta 82 .................... 3.96
Cocoa Beach 82 .................... Unr
Midnight Lute 77 .................... Unr
Conduit 75 .................... Unr
Ventura 74..................... 2.75
Rachel Alexandra 69.................... 12.71

Latest winners

Oak Leaf Stakes G1
Blind Luck 19.31 Lucky One .63

Norfolk Stakes G1
Lookin At Lucky 32.93 Private Feeling .97

Alcibiades Stakes G1
Negligee 32.36 Naughty Intentions 5.47

Frizette Stakes G1
Devil May Care 25.00 Kelli's Ransom 2.60

Champagne Stakes G1
Homeboykris 22.77 One Last Salute 2.87

Jamaica Breeders Cup Handicap G1
Take the Points 17.23 Ginger Ginger 0

Breeders Futurity G1
Noble's Promise 25.87 The Devils Trick .33

First Lady Stakes G1
Diamondrella 18.98 Tap Your Feet 4.72

Shadwell Turf Mile G1
Court Vision 27.23 Weekend Storm Unr

Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes G2
Informed Decision 34.49 Palangana 1.70

Lady's Secret Stakes G1
Zenyatta 81.52 Vertigineux 3.96

Yellow Ribbon Stakes G1
Magical Fantasy 31.33 Kissing Gate .96

Goodwood Breeders Cup Stakes G1
Gitano Hernando 18.50 Gino's Spirits 11.00

Oak Tree Mile Stakes G2
Cowboy Cal 20.68 Texas Tammy 0

Jerome Handicap G2
Girolamo 10.03 Get Lucky 12.39

Spinster Stakes G1
Mushka 15.76 Sluice 3.31

Clement Hirsch Turf Championship Stakes G1
Presious Passion 20.22 Princesa's Passion Unr

Ancient Title Breeders Cup Stakes G1
Gayego 19.37 Devil's Lake 1.70

Ya Gotta Love Zenyatta

Over half a century ago when I first got interested in thoroughbred racing I saw the movie Bluegrass with Walter Brennan. In the movie there is a rivialry bretween two Kentucky families starting in the War Between the States. One family was for the North and one for the South. To make a long story short, in modern times (1938 when the movie was made) the Northern family, which had prospered, owes the Southern family, which was somewhat down and out, a big dept.
Walter Brennan's character gets to choose any two-year-old from the Northern Families stable to settle this debt. The best horse in the Northern Stable is Postman, but the old man picks a small colt because he has "the look of eagles". Of course the small colt ends up beating Postman in the Kentucky Derby. I was about 10 years old when I saw that movie and ever since I've been looking for the horse with "the look of eagles".

I first heard of Secretariat when he won the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga and one of the racing writers in describing the race said, "Secretariat came through the field like a Fox coming through a flock of chickens". When Secretariat came to Maryland later that year for the then important Laurel Futurity I had to go to the track to see this wonder horse. I had heard that Secretariat was a very beautiful horse but I didn't find him so. Powerful, yes, something like a locamotive but I thought his stable mate Angle Light was more "beautiful" What Secreatariat had was a physical presence. He made the other horse look puny, and he knew it. He walked around the paddock like a king surrounded by his courtiers. A king amongst a lesser group.

Fast forward 35 years and we have Zenyatta; a queen amongst her hand maidens. I don't know which I like more, watching Zenyatta prancing around the paddock or running down her opposition on the track. However, there is no question that Zenyatta thinks she is the queen of the mai and she shows it. I think she may have the look of eagles. She's a huge beautiful mare that almost dances her way to the post to the delight of all of the fans and the racing commentators as well.

I'm not sure that Zenyatta is the best horse in the country, and of course because our sport is no longer a sport, but more of a business, we'll never know. It's my personal belief that she could never run down Rachel Alexandra at a mile and an eighth or less. But, at a 1 1/4 miles with a strong pace she might have a chance. Who wouldn't like to see both of these wonderful mares in the Breeders Cup Classic. It would a race for the ages!

You can see the problem the sport (or should I call it an industry) has. Different types of surfaces that favor different horses. I think artificial surfaces are a serious problem if they lead to the problem we are witnessing this year. I don't blame Jess Jackson for not running Rachel Alexandra against the likes of Zenyatta over a surface that Zenyatta is known to like. He obviously thinks that the surface caused Curlin's defeat in last year's Breeders Cup Classic. The problem with thoroughbred racing is that it has no NFL, NBA, PGA type organization to coordinate what is going on. These different type of racing surfaces are extremely detrimental to the sport. It is the primary reason there will be no Zenyatta vs Rachel Alexandra showdown. That's what I call a real detriment to racing.

Actually, all sports have their problems but racing has more. I hate to say this but we are becoming a nation of cheats. For the life of me I can't figure out why Baseball, Football, Basketball, and yes Horse Racing tolerate cheating. Why not one strike and you're out? Why not a zero tolerance policy? Just about all horses race on Lasics, but how many are actually bleeders? How about Steroids brought into thoughbred racing from quarter horse trainers who end up in the hall of fame! Ever wonder why the modern thoroughbreds are so fragile?
I hate to say this but they are a joke compared to horses that raced 40 years ago. When was the last time you saw one of them carry 130 pounds?

There is an old saying, A great horse can beat good horses over a distance of ground carrying weight. The problem is they don't carry weight anymore. They don't even race past three years old. Look at a couple of recent horses of the year, Tiznow and Cigar. Tiznow won the Breeders Cup Classic twice but never carried more than 126 pounds. Cigar won 18 races in a row but only carried 130 pounds twice. Want to compare them to a real champion? Take Round Table with 66 starts 43 wins and carried 130 pounds or "more" 25 times and won 17 of those races. Or Forego 57 starts 34 wins carried 130 pounds or more 24 times and won 13. He beat Champion Honest Pleasure by a neck carrying 137 pounds over 1 1/4 miles giving Honest Pleasure 18 pounds. How About Kelso, 63 starts 39 wins carried 130 pounds or more 24 times won 12. Kelso carried 136 pounds twice and won both races. Even Dr. Fager was exceptional. He carried 130 pounds in 8 consecutive races and won 7. In the one he lost he was carrying 135 to Damascus' 130 and was contending with "the rabbit's". Then came Dr. Fager's final start carrying 139 pounds. He won by 6 lengths in 120 1/5 for 7 furlongs setting a track record that lasted for almost 40 years. That's greatness!

So where did things start to go wrong? In the 1970's. Believe it or not Secretariat never carried 130 pounds. Not once! Take the great John Henry compared to Kelso. Both were geldings and both had many starts, Kelso 63 and John Henry 83. The difference is that Kelso was asked to shoulder 130 pounds or more 24 times and John Henry only twice, neither of which he won.

What I'm trying to say is you can't have sports without Heros. I know there is considerably more money in breeding vis a vis racing. When a horse like Storm Cat has a $500,000 stud fee and can inpregnate 100 mares a year that's $50,000,000 a year in stud fees. In 10 years that is 500 million. No wonder.

That's why Jess Jackson is the man. First he allowed us to see Curlin as a four-year-old, and now next year Rachel Alexandra. Who could ask for more.

Jockey Club Gold Cup G1

The running of the Jockey Club Gold Cup G1 last week highlighted the achievement of the young stallion Birdstone who has sired two Classic winners in his first crop. Summer Bird won the Belmont Stakes G1 before adding the Travers Stakes G1 and the recent Jockey Club Gold CupG1. This is in addition to Kentucky Derby G1 winner Mine That Bird. the only question now will be id he can replicate this success when he is mated with higher quality mares. We should know next year.



Here are last weeks major stakes winners with their racing indexes and their dams racing indexes. I keep a record of all of the dams of G1 and G2 winners and their respective dams and broodmare sires anyone interested in receiving this list can e-mail me at floydoliver@sbcglobal.net and I will email you a copy.

One last thought. Remember in my blog on 9/13/09 entitled Summer Bird Takes Travers Stakes I said it would be very unlikely that Mi Sueno would win the Breeders cup Juvenile Fillies becuase her dam has such a high racing index. Mi Sueno was injured and retired. However, she is out of a daughter of Hennessy as is Careless Jewel winner of the Cotillion. Hennessy is proving his daughters can produce very high indexed runners in the championship class. Also note both of these runners, Careless jewel and Mi Sueno were produced when their dams were crossed with the Pulpit male line



Jockey Club Gold Cup G1
Summer Bird 79.03 Hong Kong Squall .57



Kentucky Cup Classic G2
Furthest Land 8.44 Flagrant Unr



Gallant Bloom Breeders Cup Handicap G2
Indian Blessing 52.06 Shameful 7.94



Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational G1
Interpatation 7.36 Idealistic 5.19



Beldame Stakes G1
Music Note 44.68 Note Musicale Unr



Vosburgh Stakes G1
Kodiak Kowboy 22.28 Kokadrie Unr



Flower Bowl Invitational G1
Pure Clan 36.34 Gather The Clan 9.05



Hawthorne Gold Cup G2
Awesome Gem 22.74 Piano Unr



Indiana Derby G2
Misremembered 24.87 Beyond Perfection 31.40



Cotillion Stakes G2
Careless Jewel 55.96 Sweet and Careless Unr



Ohio Derby G2
Gone Astray 21.91 Illicit Unr

Connemara

In the 10th race at Turfway Park on Sunday Oct. 4th 2009 we might have seen a future star emerge. The horse in question is Connemara by Giant's Causeway-Satin Sunrise by Mr. Leader.
You would have to have seen the race to realise how impressive it was. He had the TVG commentators singing his praise considering how many races they watch. The colt was left at the post, raced wide around the first turn and down the backstretch, continued five wide around the far turn and won by 5 lengths. Since his sire is currently the Leading sire in North America this colt could well develop into a classic contender.

He has some interesting pedigree traits. 1st he traces in tail female to one of the great matriarch's of the breed Queen Mary. If you've never heard of her she was owned my a trainer named William I'Anson back in 1850. After producing her first foal she was sold to a farmer in Scotland to produce work horses. I'Anson kept her foal and used her as a hack. One day while riding her across the gallops to the post office he decided to let her run. By the time he reached the post office he was desperate to find her dam, Queen Mary. He finally located her in Scotland and had to pay a premium to get her back because she was in-foal to a Clydesdale stallion. The foal, later to be named Haricot was a mulitiple stakes winner and an even better producer. Her daughter Caller Ou won the St. leger Stakes and her son Sir Bevys won the Epsom Derby. She is also the granddam of leading sire Hampton. I'Anson was lucky beyond belief to reacquire his cull because for him she produced 10 Stakes winners including Blink Bonny who won the Derby and the Oaks and produced Derby winner Blair Athol who won the Derby and St. leger and was leading sire in England 4 times. If that wasn't enough Queen Mary is also the dam of Leading sire in North America, Bonnie Scotland.

If you remember my last post I showed that Urban Sea's breeding ability may be the result of reinforcing a strong female family with a male line tracing to it. This happened over and over again with the descendants of Queen Mary. Black Toney, who was a surprisingly good stallion dispite being a mediocre racehorse was out of a mare bred along the lines of Urban Sea. His dam Belgravia was a great granddaughter of Queen Mary while Belgravia's sire was a grandson of Queen Mary's Son, Bonnie Scotland. Black Toney sired two Kentucky Derby winners in Black Gold and Brokers Tip as well as Bimelech who was unbeaten at two and a champion at three. Check out Belgravia's pedigree Http://www.pedigreequery.com/belgravia

Another thing I like about Connemara's pedigree is the fact that he is linebred 3x5 to Djeddah. Take a look at Djeddah's pedigree and compare it to Belgravia's and Urban Sea's Http://www.pedigreequery.com/Djeddah

Hope that gives you alot to think about

Urban Sea

In my first post entitled The Rachel Alexandra Dilemma I mentioned that Urban Sea was one of those rare mares that inspite of being a champion racemare was still as good as a produced as one could imagine. In that post I postulated that one of the reasons for her success as a broodmare was that she ran on grass. Mares that run on turf are much more likely to be good producers then their counterparts that compete on dirt. What is the resaon for this abnormality? It could be the difference in training Methods. Federico Tesio believed that hard racing depleted a horse of a certain vitality that it did not have to pass on to the next generation. He felt that a generation of rest was necessary to restore this vitality. The 2nd horse I bred was a colt by Go Marching. He was sent to France where he was trained by Miguel Clement who had trained two winners of the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby). He told me that we Americans breed 20 Sea-Birds every year, but only one survives our training methods. It could be that horses that run on dirt are subjected to training methods much more likely to drain a horse of the vitality of which Tesio spoke. It can't be proven ,but it's a rational explanation. I know that Champion racemares who compete on dirt are very unlikely to produce horses of championship caliber whereas their counterparts who race on turf are much more likely to produce horses of classic ability.



Urban Sea is one of those exceptional broodmares. There could be another explanation for her extraordinary ability. I would suggest that you look back at the post on Chauette posted 7/28/09. Take a look a Chauette's 2nd dam Quiet fun. If you don't have a program to do this go online site http://www.pedigreequery.com/quiet fun. You will find that both her sire and dam both trace to the same mare, Cequillo by Princequillo. Her grandsire Fappiano also traces to Cequillo. Then pull up a mare named Lizzie G who happens to be the 2nd dam of the great Domino. You will see the same pattern represented by three crosses of Fandango. One come from the direct female line and two more from War Dance and LeCompte.

Essentially, you could describe this as a stallion being used to reinforce his own maternal line. This happens much more in thoroughbred breeding then you might realize and the results are often profound. Some horses you might know with this pattern are Numbered Account, Relaxing, dam of Easy Goer, Mint Copy, Dam of Deputy Minister, Mother Siegel, dam of Minoru, Giantess, 2nd and 3rd dam of 7 classic winners, Blue Larkspur, Black Toney, etc. There are hundreds more, one of which is Urban Sea's dam Allegretta.

There is an important distiction that has to be made here. A very important one. When I speak of the male line being used to reinforce the female line.........I don't mean just the sire. It could be the sire, grandsire or great grandsire in the direct male line that is used to reinforce the female line.

With that in mind pull up the pedigree of Urban Sea's dam http://www.pedigreequery.com/Allegretta. You will see that her grandsire Agio traces to a mare called Aster while Allegretta also traces to Aster.

If you look at Agio's dam Aralia you will find the exact same pattern. Alchimist her sire traces to Alveole and so does Aralia.

I believe that Urban Sea's incredible breeding ability come from the fact that her dam is very reinforced when it comes to her tail female line. She is linebred to Aster and inbred to Alchimist and both these horses trace to the same mare. Check it out. Then you'll understand why I think Chauette, in the right hands could be an exceptional broodmare

Ventura takes Woodbine Mile G1

Ventura soldified her position as best female turf miler in North America with a victory in the $1,000,000 Woodbine mile over colts. She has a 73.96 while her dam Estala by Be My Guest has an estimated racing index of 3.50. Estala placed 2nd in the ungraded Prix Isola Bella and 3rd in the ungraded Prix Finlande and Prix Rose De Mai. She is typical of the sort of race mare that produces very high indexed horses. See Arlington Million Post





Latest G1 and G2 winners





Woodbine Mile G1

Ventura 73.96 Estala 3.50



Northern Dancer Breeders Cup G1

Just As Well 15.25 No Matter What 15.25



Canadian Stakes G2

Princess Haya 8.68 Sally Slew 1.25

Futurity Stakes G2
D'Funnybone 19.31 Elbow 2.25

Matron Stakes G2
Awesome Maria 18.35 Discreetly Awesome Unr

Super Derby G2
Regal Ransom 37.50 Kelli's Ransom 2.60

Ruffian Handicap G1
Swift Temper 18.81 Glascow's Gold 1.56

Palomar Handicap G2
Gotta Have Her 11.37 Winnowing Unr