Astrology

Last year on February 1st I chose Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby based on his pedigree. the other horse I liked was Eskendereya who was injured and never made the race. Of all the young stallions in Kentucky I like Eskendereya to become a top stallion.

This year I like Astrology who will make his first start of the year in the Sunland Park Derby. Super Saver, Eskendereya and Astrology have a similar pedigree patter often found in top racehorses. What is that pattern? It is the crossing of a male line descendant of a matriarch to a female descendant of the same horse.

In the case of Super Saver it was found in his 4th dam Numbered Account who is the result of breeding Buckpasser a direct descendant of La Troienne down his tail female line to Intriguing who is also a direct descendant of La Trioenne. Numbered Account was a great racemare and a great broodmare. Super Saver's dam is Supercharger a daughter of A P Indy. The addition of A P Indy to this female line adds three additional strains of reinforcement as he has La Troienne in his pedigree through Buckpasser, Poker and Jet Action all of which trace to La Troienne.

Eskendereya has this cross through his 3rd dam Stellar Odyssey who is the result of breeding Northern Dancer a grandson of Almahmoud to Queen Sucree a granddaughter of Almahmoud. Then when Giant's Causeway is bred to Aldebaran Light to produce Eskendereya an addition direct cross of Northern Dancer is added through the direct male line. Keep in mind that Stellar Odyssey produced Belmont Stakes winner Stephan's Odyssey when bred to Danzig a son of Northern Dancer.

Although he is by the classic sire A P Indy it is Astrology's dam Quiet Eclipse that is most likely to lead to classic ability. To begin Quiet Eclipse is by Quiet American who is in possession of the pedigree pattern in question. Quiet American is by Fappiano whose 3rd dam is Princequillo's daughter Cequillo. Fappiano was bred to Demure to get Quiet American and Demure's 2nd dam is the same Cequillo. Quiet American was a very fast miler who sired Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet in his first crop. A little more investigation into Quiet American's pedigree is very revealing! Cequillo's 3rd dam is a mare named Marguerite De Valois. Ever heard of her? Well if you haven't she is the full sister to the great stallions Bull Dog and Sir Gallahad 3rd. Quiet American is inbred 3x2 to Dr. Fager. Why is this important? Because Dr. Fager carries a double cross of Marguerite De Valois's full brother Bull Dog. Considering that Quiet American is inbred to Dr. Fager he adds four crosses of Bull Dog to reinforce Cequillo.

It is easy to see that Quiet American is the result of the concentration of a great female line into one individual.

So why do I think Astrology's dam Quiet Eclipse is likely to give him extraordinary ability? It is not just that she is by Quiet American it is because she is by Quiet American and also traces to the foundation mare that made him what he is; none other than Marguerite De Valois.

In summary we have a stallion, Quiet American, who is the result of breeding Fappiano a direct descendant of Cequillo to Demure another direct descendant of Cequillo. Then Quiet American is bred to June Gift and the result is Astrology's dam Quiet Eclipse who also traces to the same mare as does Cequillo, that being Marguerite De Valois.

The question is, why do I think this makes such a significant difference? To understand this look at the pedigree of the greatest broodmare of recent times which I would argue is Urban Sea. She is the dam of Galileo which won the Epsom and Irish Derbies. Sea of Stars, Epsom Derby, 2000 Guineas and Prix de l'arc de Triomphe. My Typhoon, Diana Handicap G1. Black Sam Bellamy, Gran Primio del Jockey Club (Italian Derby) and All To Beautiful, 2nd Epsom Oaks.

No doubt about it, a super great broodmare. However, kif you were to look at just the first four generations of her pedigree you would probably miss what made her such a great producer. You have to look at her dam Allegretta to understand the pedigree.

Allegretta is by Lombard who i'm sure most of you have never heard of. Here is the significance , Lombard is by Agio whose dam is a mare called Aralia, she being my Alchimist-Aster by Oleander. Unless you are some sort of pedigree expert, none of these horses would mean anything to you. However, Alchimist's 3rd dam and Aster's 6th dam are the same mare, one Alveole by Crafton. Therefore, Aralia is the result of breeding a male line descendant of a mare back to a female from the same family.

Now look down Allegretta's female line and you find Aster as her 5th dam. Not only that but we find that Allegretta's 2nd dam is bred very much like Aralia. Aralia is by Alchimist out of Aster while Almyra (2nd dam of Allegretta) is by a son of Alchimist out of a granddaughter of Aster. More importantly we have one of the sires in the male line, in this case Agio, tracing to the same mare as does Allegretta (same cross as found in Super Saver, Eskendereya and Astrology). I hope this is food for thought.

Super Saver

At the end of each year as the distances stretch out for the current two-year-old crop one begins to look forward to the 2010 classic races. Super Saver won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes by five lengths over 1 1/16 miles. He is by Maria's Mon-Supercharger by A P Indy. His 2nd dam is by Mr. Prospector, 3rd dam by Northern Dancer and his 4th dam is Numbered Account. Todd Pletcher is the trainer so with such pedigree this colt could develop into a classic contender. Keep in mind that Maria's Mon sired Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos from his 1st crop.


If you haven't read the blog previously what we are doing is showing all ,of the G1 and G2 winners with their racing indexes and that of their dams. In this way you can see that the best runners are produced by mares with relatively low racing indexes.


Here are the winners and dams of G1 & G2 winners since the Breeders Cup and their racing indexes


Mrs. Revere Stakes G2
Mary's Follies 11.81 Catch the Queen 0.21

Citation Handicap G1
Fluke 13.45 Uff Uff Unr

Top Flight Handicap G2
Sara Louise 14.88 King's Lynn 2.97

Clark Handicap G2
Blame 24.26 Liable 7.31

Cigar Mile G1
Kodiak Cowboy 23.89 Kokadrie Unr

Gazelle Stakes G1
Flashing 21.06 Morning Pride

Remsen stakes G2
Buddy's Saint 19.03 Tuzia 5.66

Demoiselle Stakes G2
Tizahit 10.91 Never a No Hitter Unr

Golden Rod Stakes G2
Sassy Image 9.54 Ideal Image 0.66

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes G2
Super Saver 11.18 Supercharger 5.45

Matriarch Stakes G1
Ventura 73.00 Estala 2.75

Hollywood Derby G1
The Usual Q T 13.96 Lunge 2.97

Bayakoa Handicap G2
Zardana 7.17 Dear Filly Unr

Cashcall Futurity G1
Lookin At Lucky 54.70 Private Feeling 0.97

Hollywood Starlet Stakes G1
Blind Luck 32.92 Lucky One 0.63

W. L. McKnight Handicap G2
Cloudy's Knight 9.75 Cloudy Spot 1.28

La Brea Stakes G1
Evita Argentina 13.81 Jealous Wildcat 0.93

Malibu Stakes G1
M One Rifle 8.16 Leanessa 8.16

San Gabriel Handicap G2
Proudinsky 24.29 Proudeyes 0

San Gorgonio Handicap G2
Cat By The Tale 8.44 St. Claire Ridge 15.28

San Fernando Stakes G2
Papa Clem 28.30 Miss Houdini 15.00

San Pasquel Handicap G2
Neko Bay 10.39 Brulay 8.27

Santa Ynez G2
Amen Hallelujah 9.71 Sara's Success 5.05

El Encino Stakes G2
Pretty Unusual 9.58 Sci Fi Kin 1.32

Palos Verdes Handicap G2
Kinsaleking 12.25 Flaming Mirage Unr

San Marcos Handicap G2
Loup Breton 23.12 Louve 5.50

Forward Gal Stakes G2
Bickersons 9.43 Dancehall Floozy 2.39

Santa Monica Handicap G1
Gabby's Golden Gal 19.95 Gabriellina Giof 2.73

Zenyatta wins Breeders Cup Classic

Zenyatta made her place in the History books retiring undefeated while becoming the first mare to win the Breeders Cup Classic. As much as I loved Zenyatta prior to her convincing win in the Breeders Cup Classic, I was thinking along with many others, "Who did she ever beat". Undefeated Yes, but was she really as good as her record. Now, thanks to Mr. And Mrs. Jerome Moss, her owners and John Shirreffs her trainer, we have the answer. Had she skipped the Classic and instead run in the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic, she would be remembered as the undefeated Zenyatta. Instead her connections gave her the chance for greatness and perhaps immortality, which she quickly siezed. How she goes down in the history books as, "The Great Zenyatta". All of this was to the benefit of racing.


This brings us to the dams of the winners of the Breeders Cup races. Keep in mind the winners of these races have some of the highest racing indexes in racing. What this blog is all about is what kind of racemares are the dams of these type of superior runners.



In the cases of the European winners I had to estimate their racing indexes. And example of how I would do this is in comparing Zenyatta's index to that of Conduit. Zenyatta started 14 times with 14 wins and earnings of $5,474,580. Her Standard Starts index is 154.47. Her average earnings per start is $391,000. I figure Conduit's index at about 150 slightly under Zenyatta's. Conduit started 15 times and earned $5,814,200 his average earnings per start is $387,000, So, Conduit's average earnings per start is slightly under Zenyatta's therefore so is his index. I figured Goldikova the same way. Keep in mind these index are not a handicapping tool. We are just interested that these horses are very high indexed runners and then look to see what type racemare produced these runners.



In this years Breeders Cup races none of the dams was an exceptional racemare. Probably the best racemare as far as the dams go is Sweet Life by Kris S whose racing index is 7.61 She won the listed Providencia Stakes and ran 2nd in the Beverly Hills Handicap G1 and 3rd in the San Clemente Handicap G2. In the case of each dam of a Breeders Cup winner I'll give her SS index and make a comment on what type of racemare she was. What I'm trying to show is that you will find most of the dams of Breeders Cupo winners will come from mares with racing indexes of ranging from 1-10. What you generally find in the breed (except for Turf runners) is that once a mares racing index rises above SS index of 25 she will be very unlikely to Produce Champions.



Most important piece of Information to be gathered from the Breeders Cup races is that two of the 10 winners were out of Kris S mares. Get yourself one!


Breeders Cup Classic G1
Zenyatta 154.47 Vertigineux 3.96
Vertigineux started 7 times with 2 wins.......Allowance winner


Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint G1
Informed Decision 46.06 Palangana 1.70
Palangana won 1 race. A maiden winner


Breeders Cup Ladies Classic G1
Life is Sweet 42.94 Sweet Life 7.61
Sweet Life won Providencia Stakes, 2nd Beverly Hills H. G1, 3rd San Clemente H G2


Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies G1
She Be Wild 69.37 Trappings o.2
Trappings started 8 times 0 Wins earned $4,130


Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf G1
Midday 45.50 Midsummer.........3.00
Midsummer started 3 times with 1 win. placed 2nd in Oaks Trial


Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf G1
Tapitsfly 25.25 Flying Marlin..........3.22
Flying Marlin 18 starts 4 wins $146,051


Breeders Cup Sprint G1
Furthest Land.........20.58..........Flagrant.........Unr,
Flagrant was unraced


Breeders Cup Juvenile G1
Vale of York..........45.00............Red Vale.........Unr
Red Vale was Unraced



Breeders Cup Mile G1
GoldIkova..........135.............Born Gold......1.30
Born gold made 6 starts with 1 win

Breeders Cup Turf G1 Conduit 150..................... Well Head Unr
Well Head was unraced

Meadowlands Cup G2

I decided to feature the Meadowlands Cup G2 this week as it was won by Etched a colt by Forestry and out of Unbridled Elaine who amongst her accomplishments can be counted a victory in the Breeders Cup Distaff. Unbridled Elaine has a racing index of 59.24 while her son Etched has an index of 20.23. Etched must have his soundness issues as he missed his three-year-old season however he has 5 wins in 7 starts. Etched is typical of what a high indexed runner such as Unbridled Elaine is likely to produce "when at her best". Etched has a racing index about 1/3 of Unbridled Elaine's. Usually a high indexed mare will breed horses 5% of her own index or worse. When at their best, a horse 25% of their own index. Some very rare high indexed mares will produce runners with indexes as high as their own or higher........and when they do, that individual is "usually" a worthless breeding animal when retired to the breeding shed. These as just general principles and once in awhile you will find an exception, usually involving a short racing career. I'm just going to put up the figures. Make of them what you will.

Latest Winners

Raven Run Stakes G2
Satans Quick Chick.............9.37.......Dancing Devilette............9.23

Fayette Stakes G2
Blame .24.......Liable.................................7.31

Meadowlands Cup G2
Etched......................20.23......Unbridled Elaine............59.24

Queen Elizabeth 2nd Challenge Cup G1
Hot Cha Cha....................16.56......Reduced Sentence..............01

Canadian International Stakes G1
Champs Elysees.............54.54......Hasili.................................5.00

E P Taylor Stakes G1
Lahaleeb.........................23.30......Flames.............................Unr.

Nearctic Stakes G2
Field Commission..........14.73.......Tearful Moment.............Unr.

Superior runners as Producers

In the last post I showed a list of the dams of the highest indexed runners and their indexes. This week I'll show the top 10 highest indexed mares that were able to produce high indexed runners



Dam.........................index.........................Runner................index



Mom's Command.......53.47..... ..Jonesboro..........................10.95

Madcape Escapade....44.94..... ..Mi Sueno............................20.72

Beyond Perfection.....31.40........Misremembered...............24.87

Tomisue's Delight......31.12.........Mr. Sidney........................17.26

Tranquility Lake........29.95.........Courageous Cat..................9.32

Honest Lady...............26.86.........First Defense.....................13.98

Well Chosen................26.22.........Telling.................................11.83

Innuendo.....................24.02.... ...Criticism..............................25.12

Classy Mirage.............21.95..........Dublin..................................19.50

Gay Charm.................21.60..........Einstein...............................49.93



Some interesting observations from these broodmares with very superior racing indexes. First, Champions usually have a racing index of 25 or higher and this is the point where the "law of Diminishing returns" sets in. From there on as the mares racing index increases it increases the likelihood that she will "breed down" from her own index. As you can see the top five mares all bred down from their own indexes. Only Gay Charm the dam of Einstein bred up. The problem is that Gay Charm raced in Brazil and her racing index is only an estimate



Another important factor is that once regression has taken place in the family a resurgence can take place, that is why Mr. Sidney by Storm Cat and First Defense by Unbridled's Song are excellent Stallion prospects. On the female side the same hold true for Mi Sueno.

Dam's of Superior Runners

This week in addition to the winners of the last few weeks G1 and G2 races I'm going to give you the list of the dams of the highest indexed runners of the last year. When looking at these horses consider that these indexes are not always accurate or have not been updated in a timely manner. I'm using the Brisnet Standard Starts Index taken from their Bloodstock Review Web Site. However, the can lag behind in updating their Indexes. For instance, Rachel Alexandra was shown having a 69.01 Standard Starts Index after winning the Kentucky Oaks in May. Since she has won the Preakness Stakes, with a purse of $1,100,000, the Mother Goose with a $300,000, the Haskell, $1,250,000 and the Woodward Stakes, $750,000 without defeat. After the Woordward the site still showed her index as being 69.40, obviously not correct. For our purposes this does not matter as we are not using the index as a handicapping tool. The horse with the highest rcing index may or may not be the best horse. what we are looking for is horses of the highest racing class that have the highest earnings per start. We are looking to see what type of racemare is most likely to produce runners of extreme racing class. the horses I'm about to show you have very high indexes and it soesn't matter for our inquiry if the horse has a 75 index or a 150 as both are exceptional. Here are the highest indexed runners of the past 12 months.

Runner index .............. Dam's index

Curlin 156 .....................Unr
Big Brown 136 .....................8.20
Midshipman 89 .................... 13.99
Goldikova 95 .................... 1.65
Raven's Pass 90 .................... 7.88
Zenyatta 82 .................... 3.96
Cocoa Beach 82 .................... Unr
Midnight Lute 77 .................... Unr
Conduit 75 .................... Unr
Ventura 74..................... 2.75
Rachel Alexandra 69.................... 12.71

Latest winners

Oak Leaf Stakes G1
Blind Luck 19.31 Lucky One .63

Norfolk Stakes G1
Lookin At Lucky 32.93 Private Feeling .97

Alcibiades Stakes G1
Negligee 32.36 Naughty Intentions 5.47

Frizette Stakes G1
Devil May Care 25.00 Kelli's Ransom 2.60

Champagne Stakes G1
Homeboykris 22.77 One Last Salute 2.87

Jamaica Breeders Cup Handicap G1
Take the Points 17.23 Ginger Ginger 0

Breeders Futurity G1
Noble's Promise 25.87 The Devils Trick .33

First Lady Stakes G1
Diamondrella 18.98 Tap Your Feet 4.72

Shadwell Turf Mile G1
Court Vision 27.23 Weekend Storm Unr

Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes G2
Informed Decision 34.49 Palangana 1.70

Lady's Secret Stakes G1
Zenyatta 81.52 Vertigineux 3.96

Yellow Ribbon Stakes G1
Magical Fantasy 31.33 Kissing Gate .96

Goodwood Breeders Cup Stakes G1
Gitano Hernando 18.50 Gino's Spirits 11.00

Oak Tree Mile Stakes G2
Cowboy Cal 20.68 Texas Tammy 0

Jerome Handicap G2
Girolamo 10.03 Get Lucky 12.39

Spinster Stakes G1
Mushka 15.76 Sluice 3.31

Clement Hirsch Turf Championship Stakes G1
Presious Passion 20.22 Princesa's Passion Unr

Ancient Title Breeders Cup Stakes G1
Gayego 19.37 Devil's Lake 1.70

Ya Gotta Love Zenyatta

Over half a century ago when I first got interested in thoroughbred racing I saw the movie Bluegrass with Walter Brennan. In the movie there is a rivialry bretween two Kentucky families starting in the War Between the States. One family was for the North and one for the South. To make a long story short, in modern times (1938 when the movie was made) the Northern family, which had prospered, owes the Southern family, which was somewhat down and out, a big dept.
Walter Brennan's character gets to choose any two-year-old from the Northern Families stable to settle this debt. The best horse in the Northern Stable is Postman, but the old man picks a small colt because he has "the look of eagles". Of course the small colt ends up beating Postman in the Kentucky Derby. I was about 10 years old when I saw that movie and ever since I've been looking for the horse with "the look of eagles".

I first heard of Secretariat when he won the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga and one of the racing writers in describing the race said, "Secretariat came through the field like a Fox coming through a flock of chickens". When Secretariat came to Maryland later that year for the then important Laurel Futurity I had to go to the track to see this wonder horse. I had heard that Secretariat was a very beautiful horse but I didn't find him so. Powerful, yes, something like a locamotive but I thought his stable mate Angle Light was more "beautiful" What Secreatariat had was a physical presence. He made the other horse look puny, and he knew it. He walked around the paddock like a king surrounded by his courtiers. A king amongst a lesser group.

Fast forward 35 years and we have Zenyatta; a queen amongst her hand maidens. I don't know which I like more, watching Zenyatta prancing around the paddock or running down her opposition on the track. However, there is no question that Zenyatta thinks she is the queen of the mai and she shows it. I think she may have the look of eagles. She's a huge beautiful mare that almost dances her way to the post to the delight of all of the fans and the racing commentators as well.

I'm not sure that Zenyatta is the best horse in the country, and of course because our sport is no longer a sport, but more of a business, we'll never know. It's my personal belief that she could never run down Rachel Alexandra at a mile and an eighth or less. But, at a 1 1/4 miles with a strong pace she might have a chance. Who wouldn't like to see both of these wonderful mares in the Breeders Cup Classic. It would a race for the ages!

You can see the problem the sport (or should I call it an industry) has. Different types of surfaces that favor different horses. I think artificial surfaces are a serious problem if they lead to the problem we are witnessing this year. I don't blame Jess Jackson for not running Rachel Alexandra against the likes of Zenyatta over a surface that Zenyatta is known to like. He obviously thinks that the surface caused Curlin's defeat in last year's Breeders Cup Classic. The problem with thoroughbred racing is that it has no NFL, NBA, PGA type organization to coordinate what is going on. These different type of racing surfaces are extremely detrimental to the sport. It is the primary reason there will be no Zenyatta vs Rachel Alexandra showdown. That's what I call a real detriment to racing.

Actually, all sports have their problems but racing has more. I hate to say this but we are becoming a nation of cheats. For the life of me I can't figure out why Baseball, Football, Basketball, and yes Horse Racing tolerate cheating. Why not one strike and you're out? Why not a zero tolerance policy? Just about all horses race on Lasics, but how many are actually bleeders? How about Steroids brought into thoughbred racing from quarter horse trainers who end up in the hall of fame! Ever wonder why the modern thoroughbreds are so fragile?
I hate to say this but they are a joke compared to horses that raced 40 years ago. When was the last time you saw one of them carry 130 pounds?

There is an old saying, A great horse can beat good horses over a distance of ground carrying weight. The problem is they don't carry weight anymore. They don't even race past three years old. Look at a couple of recent horses of the year, Tiznow and Cigar. Tiznow won the Breeders Cup Classic twice but never carried more than 126 pounds. Cigar won 18 races in a row but only carried 130 pounds twice. Want to compare them to a real champion? Take Round Table with 66 starts 43 wins and carried 130 pounds or "more" 25 times and won 17 of those races. Or Forego 57 starts 34 wins carried 130 pounds or more 24 times and won 13. He beat Champion Honest Pleasure by a neck carrying 137 pounds over 1 1/4 miles giving Honest Pleasure 18 pounds. How About Kelso, 63 starts 39 wins carried 130 pounds or more 24 times won 12. Kelso carried 136 pounds twice and won both races. Even Dr. Fager was exceptional. He carried 130 pounds in 8 consecutive races and won 7. In the one he lost he was carrying 135 to Damascus' 130 and was contending with "the rabbit's". Then came Dr. Fager's final start carrying 139 pounds. He won by 6 lengths in 120 1/5 for 7 furlongs setting a track record that lasted for almost 40 years. That's greatness!

So where did things start to go wrong? In the 1970's. Believe it or not Secretariat never carried 130 pounds. Not once! Take the great John Henry compared to Kelso. Both were geldings and both had many starts, Kelso 63 and John Henry 83. The difference is that Kelso was asked to shoulder 130 pounds or more 24 times and John Henry only twice, neither of which he won.

What I'm trying to say is you can't have sports without Heros. I know there is considerably more money in breeding vis a vis racing. When a horse like Storm Cat has a $500,000 stud fee and can inpregnate 100 mares a year that's $50,000,000 a year in stud fees. In 10 years that is 500 million. No wonder.

That's why Jess Jackson is the man. First he allowed us to see Curlin as a four-year-old, and now next year Rachel Alexandra. Who could ask for more.